I really don't think Oasis will reform.
Having said that, I reserve the right to change my mind. When Oasis split, Gem Archer and Andy Bell followed Liam into something called Beady Eye and Noel Gallagher went his own way; that indicated to me that there was a plan to allow the more active members to do their own thing while Noel glides along in semi-retirement. It's interesting to see that both camps are working at exactly the pace they would have been working if Oasis hadn't split at all. Their last three albums came out spaced exactly 3 years apart. Beady Eye are going to be a little ahead of that and Noel will probably put something out every 4 years or so.
By denying the possibility of a reunion, Noel follows the John Squire school of thought. Do whatever it takes to make it seem like there will never be a reunion and then reunite the band for a big payday. Squire wasn't being dishonest--he was looking at the fact that there was no relationship between him and Ian Brown.
Noel, on the other hand, doesn't need the cash.