Friday, April 1, 2016


Does this really translate into actual votes?

Donald Trump's image among U.S. women tilts strongly negative, with 70% of women holding an unfavorable opinion and 23% a favorable opinion of the Republican front-runner in March. Trump's unfavorable rating among women has been high since Gallup began tracking it last July, but after rising slightly last fall, it has increased even further since January.

No matter how you look at it, the demographic shift towards a country run by a Democratic Party in charge of the Executive and a Republican Party in charge of at least the House of Representatives continues without pause. Were it not for Gerrymandering, the very real possibility of a country run exclusively by Democrats would be a done deal on January 20, 2017. And no matter what the obstructionists say, the Supreme Court is about to flip liberal. They cannot hold back the waters.

If we had real leadership in the Democratic Party, there'd be a quick end to the challenge of Bernie Sanders (he is, more or less, acting in his own self-interests right now with a view towards fundraising and media appearances in the future). There would be a nationwide effort to recruit solid candidates for the House of Representatives in every single district. There would be a concerted effort to take the Senate. But, right now, I see none of those things. I see paralysis and uncertainty where there should be a daily effort to capitalize on the fact that Donald Trump has a cabal of criminals working for him. I see the next month being another lost opportunity to really highlight the differences between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. Swear to God, if Hillary Clinton takes the month of August and goes to Martha's Vineyard, I'm going to lose my mud. This is going to be a close election no matter what. Convincing the American people to hand the presidency back to a Democrat after eight years of peace and prosperity is going to be a tough sell--just look at 2000.

The mere fact that someone "disapproves" of a candidate does not mean they won't vote for them. On single issues, the voter will hold their nose and go with the candidate who appeals to their self-interest. There is really only about five percent of the vote in play, nationally, and there are a few states that are going to be tough for the Democrats to win. I would worry more about what's happening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida than I would about whether or not Donald Trump can convince people in Idaho to vote for him. There are only a handful of states that matter in this decision, and everything else is just theater.

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