Saturday, October 22, 2011

Libya is Going to End Up Like Iran?

Noel Sheppard is not a very bright man:

The conservative punditocracy is going crazy right now. President Obama keeps smiling and he keeps taking out dictators, terrorists, and thugs. He's killing so many of them right now, they don't know what to do.

So, when Sheppard panics and says that Libya might become a Muslim theocracy like Iran, he reveals just how ignorant he is of what's really happening in the world. Libya is 97% or so Sunni; Iran is a theocratic state where the dominant religion is Shia, with about 90% of Iranians identifying themselves as such.

Sunni and Shia? What's that? Well, those are the two main branches of Islam that oppose one another. But, my guess is, Libya will have a lot of problems in the years to come, not the least of which are a result of the fact that the Bush Administration coddled Gaddafi and allowed him to consolidate his hold on power. That will all have to be sorted out by a government that will struggle to get on its feet.

I'm sure that they will make noises about being conservative and establishing Islamic law. This is nothing new. Libya could very well end up being a very secular state as compared to other countries where Muslims are in the majority. I wouldn't put much stock in it, however. I also wouldn't put much stock in talk of establishing democracy, either. When the power struggle is over, expect another quasi-strongman to emerge but one that is friendlier to business interests and a little more willing to share power.

How's that for a spectacular fail?

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