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Thursday

25Feb2010

The Most Awkward Handshake of the Year

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, left, shakes hand with her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir before the start of a delegation level meeting, in New Delhi, Thursday, Feb. 25, 2010.

It looks cordial, but it probably isn’t:

India and Pakistanheld their first official talks Thursday since the 2008 Mumbai siege, with both sides saying they wanted to rebuild trust shattered in that attack but acknowledging that the meeting was just a first step toward a renewed peace process.

The four-hour meeting between the nuclear-armed rivals ranged from shared water resources to the status of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. But terrorism was the focus of the discussions - an emphasis Pakistan quickly made clear would only slow further talks.

“The only way forward is to engage meaningfully across the board, and not hold the relationship hostage” to the issue of terrorism, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir told reporters after the meetings. India has long argued that Pakistan has not done enough to rein in militants operating from its soil, an accusation that Pakistan denies.

Expectations were extremely low for Thursday’s talks, which were seen as little more than a symbolic first meeting and which India had billed as “talks about talks.” Both sides indicated little of substance had been achieved.

I’m still stunned by the Mumbai attack, and I have to pay tribute to the restraint of India. I really believed that, when Mumbai happened, we were going to see an all-out shooting war along the Kashmir frontier at a minimum and much, much worse at the maximum.

Well, diplomacy always helps. I do think the lady does show a bit of skin here, however. Is that an accident or is that rubbing salt in a fundamentalist wound? Somewhere, a Taliban flunky is looking for a fainting couch after being shown the short sleeves of a professional woman in public.

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Saturday

20Feb2010

What's a Superpower to Do?

Saturday, February 20, 2010

The Dalai Lama at the White House

If you get a chance to meet with the Dalai Lama, you meet with the Dalai Lama. Of course the Chinese aren’t going to like it—that’s why you meet with the Dalai Lama in the first place:

China summoned the U.S. ambassador on Friday to express its “strong dissatisfaction” over the Dalai Lama’s meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama a day earlier.

China didn’t disclose what was discussed during the session with Ambassador Jon Huntsman at the Foreign Ministry. But Beijing had warned that a meeting between the president and the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader would damage its ties with Washington.

“The Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to this meeting,” a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement after Thursday’s meeting at the White House.

“Chinademands the U.S. seriously consider China’s stance, immediately adopt measures to wipe out the adverse impact, [and] stop conniving and supporting anti-China separatist forces.”

Yes, that’s the language of paranoia and fear. The Chinese know that their grip is slipping, and they don’t know how to tighten it without doing irreparable damage to their relations with the West. When they stop worrying about those relations, that’s when the real trouble will start.

The Dalai Lama, being a religious figure, doesn’t look like much of a conniver, does he?

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Sunday

31Jan2010

Are We Headed for a Showdown With China?

Sunday, January 31, 2010

There is a bit of a diplomatic row brewing:

China said Saturday it had suspended military exchanges with the United States over Washington’s $6.4-billion arms deal with Taiwan, the territory that Beijing claims as its own.

China’s Defense Ministry said the decision to halt visits between the Chinese and U.S. armed forces was made “in consideration of the serious harm and impacts on Sino-U.S. military relations” brought about by the arms deal, according to a report on the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Xinhua did not immediately provide further details on the visits.

“China will make further judgments as appropriate,” the agency reported.

China has more cards than ever, and isn’t afraid to begin engaging the United States. They’re even sending their best man:

China will send its U.N. envoy, Zhang Yesui, to Washington in March to serve as Beijing’s top ambassador in the United States, probably the most important overseas diplomatic posting for the Communist nation, according to U.N. diplomats.

Zhang has developed a reputation in New York as an able and constructive, if cautious, envoy who has worked closely with American diplomats in the council. Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has frequently praised his role in supporting a U.S. initiative to impose sanctions on North Korea in response to ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests.

But Zhang has proven much tougher on Iran, where he has sought to delay consideration of U.S.-backed sanctions in the Security Council. In a diplomatic snub that did not go unnoticed in Washington, Zhang sent a low-level representative from his mission earlier this month to attend high-level diplomatic talks in New York over Iran’s nuclear program.

Whatever the Obama Administration wants, it probably isn’t going to get it from the Chinese. This is what happens when you run an annual trade deficit and sell your debt to their bankers and government officials.

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Monday

18Jan2010

Another Round for Argentina and England?

Monday, January 18, 2010

British Paratrooper, Falkland Islands, 1982

That old saw again?

Britain said it “firmly rejects” a new Argentine law that defines the Falkland Islands, over which the countries fought a war in 1982, as part of its territory.

The British government delivered its protest to the Argentine chargé d’affairs in London, a Foreign Office minister, Chris Bryant, said in a statement to Parliament.

The Falkland Islands, which are known as the Islas Malvinas in Argentina, are a source of tension in relations with the U.K., which won the brief war in 1982. Reports that there may be large oil reserves in waters around the islands are adding to the strains.

The Argentine law, passed by Congress on Dec. 9, identifies a number of the South Atlantic islands claimed by the U.K., as well as part of the Antarctic shelf, as belonging to Argentina.

The U.K. has “no doubt” about its sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, South Georgia, the South Sandwich Islands and the Antarctic territory, Mr. Bryant said.

Maritime-border disputes related to natural resources aren’t uncommon, with countries such as the U.S., Canada and Russia arguing over territorial boundaries in the Arctic.

The U.K. and Argentina have overlapping claims around the Falklands and have clashed over territorial rights at the United Nations. The U.K. wants to extend its rights to waters surrounding the Falkland Islands and also wants to lock in a vast tract of seabed off the coast of Antarctica.

Argentina submitted its own claim at the U.N. for territory in the South Atlantic, and questioned “the illegitimate British occupation of the southern archipelagos.”

You’d think that this would have been settled and decided, but these things never really go away. Ask the Tamil Tigers and the Basque Separatists and the Irishmen who are still trying to kill each other in Northern Ireland.

There will be claims and counterclaims for as long as there is an economic incentive to pursue who really should possess and exploit the natural resources of these islands. You’d think that the diplomats could solve it, but this sort of thing elicits too many passions.

It doesn’t matter what they are or where they are—if there’s something there of value, there will always be a dispute. The old world meets the new world, and, once again, two aging enemies sit and wonder who can project what power where. Are the Argentinians ready to go to war with better ship to ship missiles? Are the Brits ready to send ships into the South Atlantic? Will anyone care this time?

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Monday

18Jan2010

The President Who Didn't Care

Monday, January 18, 2010

The Haitian Supreme Court Building

The media have decided to stop pretending that the President of Haiti gives a damn:

As foreign aid and troops flow into this ruined capital, a Haitian government led by a diffident president has been overwhelmed, making it largely invisible since the earthquake throttled the country six days ago.

An aloof politician who was educated abroad, President René Préval has spoken far more to foreign audiences through satellite television than to his own people. Over consecutive days this weekend, Préval, 67, met with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. But he has yet to visit the vast refugee camp that has risen in the city center alongside the crumbled National Palace, where he once lived.

The U.S. government views Préval, an agronomist by training, as a technocrat largely free of the sharp political ideologies that have divided Haiti for decades. But at a time when tragedy is forcing the country essentially to begin again, Préval’s aversion to the public stage has left millions of Haitians wondering whether there is a government at all.

“Clearly, we have not spent enough time with the people,” Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive, Préval’s right-hand man, said in an interview. “But we are overwhelmed. We just can’t step back and have a vision for this country. Soon, we hope, the operations will be matched with a strategy for the future.”

Bellerive, who has been in office less than two months, acknowledged that “we are not only ourselves victims of the disaster, but also do not have the capacity to do this on our own.”

The man is useless. Will this lead us down the road to regime change? Nation building? Running the country like we did Iraq?

Let’s see if President Obama is willing to go all in when we are broke, have few available troops, and a hollowed out military. This would be a good time to point out that, when your State Department has suffered tremendous neglect for the previous decade, it leaves you will more military options than diplomatic options. No wonder the Brazilians are flexing their muscles.

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