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Entries in Diplomacy (65)

Friday

Sep102010

Does Anyone Get the Fact that Our Enemies Know This?

Friday, September 10, 2010

The National Journal has an excellent piece up about military spending; to cite anything from it is to cross a line for me. I typically cite other blogs and news items; I don’t cite the things found in magazines because those are written by freelance writers (typically) and I feel like I’m stealing from them. I have no problem stealing from a news organization or another blogger; I stole this post from a blog, in fact. I copied everything from it and just put it here under my name. I steal everything. I even stole a glance over my shoulder and saw no one doing anything half as brilliant as what I do. That’s not to say that I don’t admire a lot of good writers and bloggers. I don’t, of course, because I am a jealous God and all that mularkey. Clever, yes?

Oh, come now. Clever doesn’t get you laid these days.

Money gets you laid.

And money is defending our nation. If we have money to defend ourselves, then every American can sleep safe and sound tonight knowing that our interests abroad have a level of protection that no other nation can match.

The problem is, we’re running out of money. And, when we do, steep cuts will need to be made. That is when our enemies, who are real and need to be held in check, will take advantage of our drastic steps to realign what we defend and what we do not defend.

Anyway, to get back on task, let me draw your attention to this graphic:

Graphic from The National Journal

Now, there are many ways to react to this. I’ll tell you the right way to react to this.

With humility.

That’s right. Humility. Because only a solid dose of humility will get us back on track. I do not mean taking a knee before our enemies. I mean, we need to have the humility necessary to extricate ourselves from “security and training operations” in one hundred and twenty different countries around the world. Yes.

We have a presence, or “boots on the ground” in 120 countries. That’s ridiculous. Our interests are not found in that many countries. We have clear enemies and places where we must stand between them and oblivion, and that’s nothing to minimize. Are we really examining what is, and what is not, a priority right now? Have we become too proud of own presence to know when we don’t really need to extend ourselves in all of these different directions?

That’s what hubris brings you—the belief that you are the world’s policeman and the world’s answer to whatever ails it. This breeds a dependence on American military and economic power that cannot be sustained forever. We must find a way to have the humility to say “you know what, we can’t help Namibia with their internal issues right now” and we need to have the humility to say, “I’m sorry, Peru, but you’re going to have to build a world-class military on your own dime.” And I’m being general, not specific, because I don’t know if we are in Namibia or Peru, but when you talk about 120 different countries around the world, Namibia and Peru are bound to be one of those, assuming there even still is a Namibia.

We cannot have a massive around-the-globe footprint as the sustained, permanent policy of the American defense establishment. And where is the State Department? The State Department should have some presence or policy in 120 different countries—really, all but two, but I digress (North Korea and the other one, Cuba, I think).

This is the price we now pay for the bureaucratic wrangling that occurred between Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice. Brief though it may have been, their tenure was a disaster for America’s future. We are suffering because of these fools and their incompetence. Why not name names? Too impolite? Well, I wouldn’t go to those kinds of parties anyway. My outlook tells me that we are in need of humility, not schmoozing.

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Friday

Jul302010

Hey, Thanks for the Panic Attack

Friday, July 30, 2010

Awful:

Three employees of the U.S. embassy in Paris were being treated for poisoning Friday after opening mail, a police source told Reuters.

The source was not immediately able to specify the nature of the poisoning or the seriousness of their condition.

A spokesman for the U.S. embassy was not immediately available for comment.

Was this a biological attack? There are several different kinds of poison that could overwhelm someone, but how could they have gotten through the mail? Will the people who handled and distributed the mail be affected as well?

This is a significant attack on American interests. I wish I knew more about what happened.

That's what I ran earlier--and now, come to find out:

Two employees of the U.S. Embassy in Paris were being given medical tests Friday after handling a suspicious package and reporting feeling "unwell," officials said.

However, an embassy official said no-one appeared to be in danger, with preliminary test results indicating the envelope was "not harmful."

French police officials said the two people involved were feeling "unwell" and that the incident was being investigated. A mobile laboratory was deployed at the site to test for poisonous substances.

Elizabeth Detmeister, deputy press attache at the embassy, said in a statement: "The embassy confirms that a suspicious envelope was received. Per embassy security procedures, the two employees who were exposed to it were evaluated by medical professionals and the envelope is being analyzed by a laboratory."

"Preliminary results indicate that the envelope was not harmful," she added.

Embassy spokesman Paul Patin added that employees in the mailroom had identified a "suspicious letter" and French authorities were then summoned to examine it.

"We have no indication that anyone is in danger or hurt," he said.

MSNBC really is a crappy news organization. A screaming red headline talked about three people being poisoned, and now this comes out?

That was my last link to MSNBC for a while.

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Monday

Jul192010

This is Why We Won't Be Leaving Afghanistan Anytime Soon

Monday, July 19, 2010

Connecting the dots isn't that difficult, is it? We are in Afghanistan in order to tie down militants that would be busy starting a war with India or overthrowing the regime in Pakistan:

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced a major aid package for Pakistan on Monday -- with hundreds of millions of dollars pledged on projects to address the country's water and power shortage, and its floundering economy.

Clinton made the announcement at the beginning of a day-long "strategic dialogue" in Islamabad on the second day of her visit to the South Asian country.

The projects, which Clinton called "long-term investment in Pakistan's future," include the construction of several dams, improvements to hydroelectric power plants and the country's power grid, and the construction or renovation of three medical facilities.

The United States will also invest $100 million to expand access to credit for small and medium-sized businesses, and provide $50 million to support investments in innovation and technology projects, she said.

And it is a regime, not a government, make no mistake about it.

These are the small business investments that we should be making in every state in the Union, but I have no problem with what the Administration is doing here. There will always be foreign aid, and it is well spent. I am not ignorant enough to go off on an anti-foreign aid rant here. I just wish there was more being done to invest in and start up small businesses in this country.

Maintaining the status quo in Pakistan cannot continue much longer. The Zardari government is a placeholder, and there is no future for it in the region. Mr. Zardari has no chance of seeing the end of the fifteen year investment in his country.

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Thursday

Jul012010

Nation Building and the Need for Legitimate Governance

Thursday, July 1, 2010

U.S. Military Special Operations Plane, AfghanistanIt's been a while since I talked about the futility of nation building, but here goes:

It’s always interesting and a little frustrating to talk to the Brits about the disasters in Iraq and Afghanistan. Having established long and tragic histories in both countries during the 19th and 20th centuries, they took the stunning decision to follow the United States back into both those quagmires in the 21st, and now they’re stuck.

Yet they are full of pith-helmet wisdom from their old colonial days. Thus one rather senior diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous, told me recently that in Afghanistan, “What you [the Americans] need is a civilian viceroy there.” Another equally influential British civil servant started a discussion of Afghanistan’s potential mineral wealth by saying, “If you were a 19th-century empire builder, you would identify the areas with the most resources and put a massive blanket of security there.”

Well, we Americans are not 19th-century empire builders, or at least we never intended to be. But as we struggle to extricate ourselves from the ill-conceived imperium left over by the George W. Bush administration, we might as well admit there are some important lessons to learn from the Britain’s unhappy experiences. No, we don’t need a viceroy. No, we don’t need rapacious industrialists scarfing up mining concessions.

The author goes on to talk about the Rudyard Kipling book Kim. I know, yawn.

This is not a new sentiment. Nation building was discredited as a practice under the Clinton Administration. Some of us have been consistent in our opposition to such nonsense. Do-gooders and feel-gooders and greedy neoconservatives have never been able to figure out that nation building does not work. Here we are, circa 2010, and we have a government paralyzed with good intentions and hell-bent on spending our way into an oblivion I'm already tired of talking about.

This piece from what was cited continues the wildly delusional idea of Afghanistan as a place where natural resources abound:

you would identify the areas with the most resources and put a massive blanket of security there.”

There's no infrastructure in Afghanistan to exploit such things. The idea that a country that has virtually no mining sector and little or no capability of developing one free of corruption is laughable. I love the idea that there are British civil servants out there who are that clueless. It makes leaving Afghanistan easier, and it makes mocking them something I can sink my teeth into. The entire British Army could deploy to Afghanistan next week and it wouldn't have the capability of securing a route from the Kabul airport to the nearest strip mine full of goodies. There's no such mine. There's nothing there to mine the materials with. There are few, if any, serviceable roads to the areas where such riches are found. There's no one qualified to work it. There isn't enough bribe money to buy off the Afghans who would allow such a thing to exist. There's no there there.

You cannot establish a "viceroy" because, within the framework of NATO and the United Nations, no illegitimate potentate can survive the bureaucracy created by bringing in coalition partners. You can wish for a viceroy; you can then go explain to whoever Ban Ki-Moon has sent as his flunky that the viceroy is running things. Good luck getting through that meeting. When that winds down, go sit with the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Dutch and the Italians (and whoever else is wearing a NATO hat) and then explain to them that the alliance we have with them really isn't a partnership since that would impinge on the need for the viceroy to be an unquestioned source of power.

If the rest of the world sees a top-down illegitimate government imposed by American will, they'll continue doing what they're doing because what we already have is a top down illegitimate government kept in place by American contractors and an expeditionary force that is worn out from repeated use. What thwarts our goal of getting out of Afghanistan is a legitimate government. Without it, nothing goes forward.

I applaud the idea of getting things done. The problem is, we've transplanted American democratic practices to a tribal part of the world where business is done by tribes, families, and through complex social interactions. Formal meetings transpire over a pot of tea and not over secure phone lines or in the hazy presentation of the leaked newspaper item. We're still ramming the round peg into the square hole, and no viceroy can fix that.

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Monday

Jun282010

Ten Russian Intelligence Officers Arrested

Monday, June 28, 2010

This is a bit shocking:

The Justice Department says 10 Russian intelligence officers have been arrested for allegedly serving as illegal agents of the Russian government in the United States.

There will be more details in a bit, I gather, but what's really striking is that this is happening:

1. On a Monday, when the news cycle can be dominated by this story as the Congress takes up the Elena Kagan nomination.

2. In the middle of summer.

3. After weeks of bad news on multiple fronts, but right after the end of the G20 summit and right after a visit from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

Did the President talk to Medvedev about this over burgers?

The news alert says that these individuals were in "deep cover" assignments. Which means that the Justice Department has been spending months, if not years, unraveling these agents. Did they take their time and build up solid cases so that the people in question can ride the lightning? Or is this another case where the people in question cannot even afford boots and uniforms in their mad quest for relevance?

What gives? Is this a distraction? Is this bullshit?

This is bullshit:

They have been charged with conspiracy to act as unlawful agents of a foreign government, which carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison.

Eight of them were arrested on Sunday for allegedly carrying out "long-term, 'deep-cover' assignments" on US soil.

Two others were arrested for allegedly participating in the same programme.

An 11th suspect remained at large, the justice department said.

Nine have also been charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Money laundering? Spying and money laundering go hand in hand, don't they? Of course not. Spying is about information; money laundering is a blatant criminal enterprise offense. The new Russia is a corrupt oligarchy, and the spying done by these individuals was probably economic in nature. The money laundering had to have been done in order to either cover their tracks or finance their purchase of information.

Anyway, here are more particulars:

[...] the justice department said the suspects had been arrested following an investigation lasting several years.

Five will appear later on Monday in a Manhattan federal court - a couple known as "Richard Murphy" and "Cynthia Murphy", who were arrested in Montclair, New Jersey; Vicky Pelaez and a man known as "Juan Lazaro," who were arrested in Yonkers, New York state; and Anna Chapman, who was arrested in Manhattan.

Another three - Mikhail Semenko and a couple known as "Michael Zottoli" and "Patricia Mills" - will appear in the federal court in Alexandria, Virginia, after being arrested at their homes in Arlington.

The final two people - known as "Donald Howard Heathfield" and "Tracey Lee Ann Foley" - were arrested in Boston and will appear in a federal court in the city.

A suspect known as "Christopher R Metsos" remains at large.

Where did they work and who did they work for? That's what I want to know.

Update on Tuesday, June 29, 2010 by

Norman Rogers

As near as I can tell, yes, this was economic espionage:

An F.B.I. investigation that began at least seven years ago culminated with the arrest on Sunday of 10 people in Yonkers, Boston and northern Virginia. The documents detailed what the authorities called the “Illegals Program,” an ambitious, long-term effort by the S.V.R., the successor to the Soviet K.G.B., to plant Russian spies in the United States to gather information and recruit more agents.

The alleged agents were directed to gather information onnuclear weapons, American policy toward Iran, C.I.A.leadership, Congressional politics and many other topics, prosecutors say. The Russian spies made contact with a former high-ranking American national security official and a nuclear weapons researcher, among others. But the charges did not include espionage, and it was unclear what secrets the suspected spy ring — which included five couples — actually managed to collect.

After years of F.B.I. surveillance, investigators decided to make the arrests last weekend, just after an upbeat visit to President Obama by the Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said one administration official. Mr. Obama was not happy about the timing, but investigators feared some of their targets might flee, the official said.

Criminal complaints filed in Federal District Court in Manhattan on Monday read like an old-fashioned cold war thriller: Spies swapping identical orange bags as they brushed past one another in a train station stairway. An identity borrowed from a dead Canadian, forged passports, messages sent by shortwave burst transmission or in invisible ink. A money cache buried for years in a field in upstate New York.

But the network of so-called illegals — spies operating under false names outside of diplomatic cover — also used cyber-age technology, according to the charges. They embedded coded texts in ordinary-looking images posted on the Internet, and they communicated by having two agents with laptops containing special software pass casually as messages flashed between them.

I think espionage would have been on the list of charges--and I have not seen where they have been charged with that as yet. It could be a charge added later, but what I think these individuals were doing was economic espionage--and perhaps a little honey trap action:

Anna Chapman

Yes, that would work for a honey trap. I would definitely fall for that. Heck, I have fallen for that.

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Tuesday

Jun012010

After Your Eighth Honey Trap, It's All Gravy

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Hanna Hilton could spring a honey trap on any man aliveYes, I have been a fool. A fool for love.

Well, specifically, a fool who fell for a honey trap. Eight, that I know of. Yes, ouch.

The honey trap has always been the bane of my existence. When I was much younger, and going overseas as a salesman for Rogers Defence Industries in order to sell riot control vehicles and dangerous chemicals, my travels would take me to the countries of the world no one visits or cares about. I have probably spent eleven weeks in something called Qatar. I have blocked it out of my memory. I spent a lot of time in Italy--those sons of bitches buy a lot of riot control vehicles. Which is strange, since the Italians are lazy, sex-crazed bigots who don't get out bed before noon.

Anyway, the honey trap that they use in the sales world involves a kickback scheme where we would have to pay an extra three or four thousand kronar or lire or whatever to some chief of police before we could deliver the riot control vehicles to a brother-in-law of his who wanted his own kickback--it was all amateur hour. We even built bribes into the cost of doing business. Any bribe money that I didn't have to shell out, Father made me give to my brother Chetley. That's a whole other story.

My heart goes out to people who fall for honey traps. Like I was saying, after about eight of them, you learn to recognize what's what and you don't drink something handed to you that's already been opened and you don't sign release forms for film or movie appearances.

The government has always moved quickly to stamp out political protests, however small, apparently fearing they could spread and ultimately lead to an uprising similar to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine five years ago.

The honey trap was a favoured tactic of the KGB in Soviet times, when it was used to compromise Western diplomats, intelligence agents and other officials.

And diplomats continue to be targeted in this way. Less than a year ago the British deputy consul-general in Yekaterinburg was forced to step down after compromising footage appeared on the internet.

But not everyone is convinced the smear campaign against opposition activists is the direct work of the Kremlin and secret services.

"It looks like organisations connected to the Kremlin did this now to justify their existence and show their relevance," says Andrei Soldatov, a journalist and author who tracks the intelligence agencies.

Now, if Hanna Hilton were part of a honey trap, I'd call this one my ninth.

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Monday

May242010

A Heightened State of Alert

Monday, May 24, 2010

I'm not sure if this is worth blogging about or not. When the incident happened, I suspected that it was a torpedo, but who knows for sure? It could have been a magnetic mine, but that's neither here nor there. The problem with any response from the South Koreans is the fact that North Korea is an irrational state protected by the Chinese from serious harm.

Maybe, this time, the Chinese will sit this one out:

The White House said Monday that President Barack Obama "fully supports" the South Korean president and his response to the torpedo attack by North Korea that sank a South Korean naval ship.

In a statement, the White House said Seoul can continue to count on the full backing of the United States and said U.S. military commanders had been told to work with their South Korean counterparts "to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression."

The administration said it endorsed President Lee Myung-bak's demand that "North Korea immediately apologize and punish those responsible for the attack, and, most importantly, stop its belligerent and threatening behavior."

I will tell you, most emphatically, that U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula are an afterthought, not a major factor in any military decision. Of the 28,000 left, most are south of Seoul and most are support forces. Many of those troops are there solely to evacuate U.S. personnel and their families. Given that we have removed combat arms units from South Korea in order to stave off shortages in Afghanistan and Iraq, there aren't many trigger pullers left.

This is not grandpa's ROK Army anymore. We're not there to keep the North from invading the South. We're there to keep the South from attacking the North and finishing those bastards off.

U.S. looks to respond to South Korean ship sinking (ctv.ca)
Clinton: Koreas security situation 'precarious' (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Clinton: Koreas security situation 'precarious' (sfgate.com)
Obama backs South Korea stance on ship's sinking (cnn.com)
South Korea to push for U.N. sanctions over warship issues (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Lee: NKorea Must Pay for Torpedo Attack on Warship (abcnews.go.com)
U.S. Accuses Kim Jong Il Of Ordering Attack On South Korean Warship (outsidethebeltway.com)
You: South Korea suspends trade with North (guardian.co.uk)
South Korea, U.S. Seek China's Help Punishing North (Update1) (businessweek.com)
South Korea suspends trade with N. Korea (cnn.com)

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Monday

May242010

A Gentleman's Row Between Australia and Israel

Monday, May 24, 2010

Here's the latest development in the strained relationship between Australia and Israel:

Australia on Monday called for the expulsion of an Israeli diplomat over fake passports used in the assassination of a Hamas operative in the United Arab Emirates.

An investigation had confirmed that Israeli agents were behind the forgery of Australian passports used in the January 20 killing of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a founding member of Hamas' military wing, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said.

The four Australians whose passports were used were victims of passport fraud and had nothing to do with the killing, he said.

Smith did not elaborate whom Australia wanted expelled from the Israeli diplomatic mission in Canberra but said diplomat has to leave within the week.

He briefed parliament on the results of the investigation Monday morning and said the forgeries were so sophisticated, only a state intelligence service could have carried them out.

If this was really serious, I would think that the Israeli Ambassador would have been thrown out, at a minimum, and that the Australian Embassy in Israel would have been emptied out in protest. This seems like a scaled-down protest, and a very similar reaction to what the British did several months ago:

Britain expelled a high-ranking Israeli diplomat Tuesday in retaliation for alleged misuse of British passports by Israeli agents suspected in the assassination of a senior Hamas commander two months ago in Dubai.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the decision was made after consultations with his Israeli counterpart. The expelled official was not identified, but the BBC and the Times of London reported that he was the head of the Mossad intelligence agency in the Israeli Embassy.

The expulsion follows an investigation by Britain's Serious Organized Crime Agency, or SOCA, into the Jan. 19 slaying of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh at a luxury hotel. Officials in the Persian Gulf emirate have alleged that the killing was carried out by an Israeli hit squad using forged European and Australian passports, 12 of them cloned from documents belonging to British citizens living in Israel.

The assassination operation may have been uniquely successful, and embarrassingly so. It's pretty obvious that none of the nations who have expelled Israeli diplomats are that upset. They cannot be seen doing nothing, or expressing approval, so they're throwing a few sacrificial lambs out there to maintain a little plausible deniability. Yes, they may be angry. They're angry their own security apparatus can't pull off such an operation. It's assassination envy.

Australia warns Israel over Dubai killing (cnn.com)
Dubai to screen Israeli arrivals (news.bbc.co.uk)
If Israel's Mossad Killed, Was It Worth It? (abcnews.go.com)
Australia warns Israel on passports (cbc.ca)
Hamas Hit Squad Includes 15 New Suspects (huffingtonpost.com)
Dubai identifies 5 new suspects in Hamas murder: report (ctv.ca)
Dubai: Israelis will be denied UAE entry (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Britain expels Israeli diplomat for alleged misuse of passports (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Australia warns Israel over Hamas assassination (ctv.ca)
Israel yet to replace UK diplomat (news.bbc.co.uk)

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Friday

Apr232010

Hillary is Running, Make no Mistake About It

Friday, April 23, 2010

My favorite Hilary is Hilary Duff*, sir.I think Hilary Rosen is missing something here:

Hillary Clinton has said several times that while she loves the job, she cannot imagine being Secretary of State beyond one term.

Now, she tells Esquire again that she is worn out by the grueling travel schedule of the top envoy job, POLITICO's Andy Barr reports:

"It wears you out," Clinton told Esquire. "The jet lag, the dry air on planes, the whole 'If it's Tuesday, I must be in...' kind of thing."

"Knock on wood," she said. "I do have good stamina and resilience. But you would think, in the world in which we live today, that with instantaneous communications, that you wouldn't need to travel as much."

But, in fact," Clinton explained, "you almost have to travel more, both because everybody knows you can get on an airplane and get to where they're expecting you, but also because it's almost as if the virtual reality cries out for the real relationships need to be affirmed."

While there have been periodic rumors that Clinton would do everything from run as Obama's Veep, to head the World Bank to be nominated for SCOTUS, to run for New York governor, if you take her at her word, she may be looking to do what she cares about in promoting women's and children's opportunities from private life, perhaps similar to her husband's role at the Clinton Foundation.

None of the previous Secretaries of State appeared to be "worn out." You could make the argument that Condoleezza Rice was the most well-rested Secretary of State because of all the shoe shopping she did whenever there was a crisis or a desperately needed trip to forestall war. What Rosen is missing is the ever-present reality of being a Clinton--the need to reach the White House at all cost.

A little bird tells me that Clinton is going to challenge Barack Obama in 2012, and she's going to try to wrest the Democratic Party away from him. She's going to launch an all-out blitz in order to accomplish this. The political year of 2012 will be unlike anything you have ever experienced. I hope you have religion sir, because you're going to need it.

*on this blog, we use "Hilary Duff" instead of Hillary Clinton. I know it's weird, but I don't care.

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Wednesday

Apr072010

America's Karzai Experiment Ends in Disaster

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Unless someone can do some serious diplomacy soon, we may see everything in Afghanistan collapse:

A former U.N envoy to Afghanistan on Tuesday questioned the "mental stability" of Hamid Karzai and suggested the Afghan president may be using drugs.

In an interview on MSNBC's "The Daily Rundown," Peter Galbraith described Karzai as "off-balance" and "emotional." Galbraith also called for President Barack Obama to vastly limit Karzai’s power to appoint officials within the war-torn country until he proves himself a reliable partner to the U.S.

"He’s prone to tirades. He can be very emotional, act impulsively. In fact, some of the palace insiders say that he has a certain fondness for some of Afghanistan’s most profitable exports," said Galbraith, in an apparent reference to opium or heroin.

What's a "palace insider" anyway? Why should anyone believe gossip? I wouldn't necessarily start with the notion that Galbraith is right because he is certainly couching his accusations in the language of deniability. What this does signal is that Hamid Karzai is under a full court press to be something he is not, and that is the legitimate leader of the Afghan people. Either the Vice President or the Secretary of State should be in Afghanistan soon, and maybe both should go.

American troops are fighting and dying to prop up the wrong guy. How telling is it that our man in Kabul and our man in Islamabad are both nuts?

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