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    Entries in Analysis (345)

    Monday
    08Mar2010

    Low Tax Really Means Low Service

    There’s no point in trying to compare Texas and California, sir:

    “Stop messing with Texas!” That was the message Gov. Rick Perry bellowed on election night as he celebrated his victory over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary for governor. In his reference to Texas’ anti-littering slogan, Perry was making a point applicable to national as well as Texas politics and addressed to Democratic politicians as well as Republicans.

    His point was that the big-government policies of the Obama administration and Democratic congressional leaders are resented and fiercely opposed not just because of their dire fiscal effects but also as an intrusion on voters’ independence and ability to make decisions for themselves.

    No one would include Perry on a list of serious presidential candidates, including himself, even in the flush of victory. But in his 10 years as governor, the longest in the state’s history, Texas has been teaching some lessons to which the rest of the nation should pay heed.

    They are lessons that are particularly vivid when you contrast Texas, the nation’s second most populous state, with the most populous, California. Both were once Mexican territory, secured for the United States in the 1840s. Both have grown prodigiously over the past half-century. Both have populations that today are about one-third Hispanic.

    Wait a minute—what does that have to do with anything? Comparisons between Texas and California cannot simply come down to the 1840s and the number of Hispanic people who chose to live there, can it? How simplified is that?

    But they differ vividly in public policy and in their economic progress — or lack of it — over the last decade. California has gone in for big government in a big way. Democrats hold big margins in the legislature largely because affluent voters in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area favor their liberal positions on cultural issues.

    Those Democratic majorities have obediently done the bidding of public employee unions to the point that state government faces huge budget deficits. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s attempt to reduce the power of the Democratic-union combine with referenda was defeated in 2005 when public employee unions poured $100 million — all originally extracted from taxpayers — into effective TV ads.

    Californians have responded by leaving the state. From 2000 to 2009, the Census Bureau estimates, there has been a domestic outflow of 1,509,000 people from California — almost as many as the number of immigrants coming in. Population growth has not been above the national average and, for the first time in history, it appears that California will gain no House seats or electoral votes from the reapportionment following the 2010 census.

    For one thing, the people of those states have voted for their interests. Voters in California have chosen their high-services form of government and Texas voters have hung on to their lack of a state income tax and traditionally low services. Employers in both states have thus adjusted what they do for employees, and so have small businesses. One is not better or worse than the other. They are both a reflection of the politics in the state over the last few decades.

    You can see the problem with pieces like this—the conclusion that “California Sucks!” is embedded in every aspect of it. But let’s snip away a graphic and run the states head to head:

    California and Texas Services Compared

    If you think taxes are low in Texas, think again. Property taxes in Texas are notoriously high; property taxes in California are under strict controls thanks to Proposition 13 legislation. Neither is a reliable bellwether for “low taxes” or “sane fiscal policy.” To make a comparison based on that is ludicrous. Neither state is on the same footing or uses the same system. If you look at actual numbers, California and Texas aren’t that far away from each other:

    It is estimated by the Tax Foundation that the nation as a whole will pay on average 9.7% of its income in state and local taxes in 2008, down from 9.9% in 2007 primarily because income grew faster than tax collections between 2007 and 2008.  This is the latest report the Tax Foundation has issued.

    New Jersey residents paid 11.8%, topping the charts.  New Yorkers were close behind, paying 11.7%, and Connecticut was third at 11.1%.  The top 10 were rounded out by Maryland (10.8%), Hawaii (10.6%), California (10.5%), Ohio (10.4%). Vermont (10.3%), Wisconsin (10.2%) and Rhode Island (10.2%).

    Alaskans pay the least, 6.4 percent in 2008, but Nevada is close at 6.6 percent.  In four states the residents pay between 7 and 8 percent of their income in state and local taxes: Wyoming (7.0%), Florida (7.4%), New Hampshire (7.6%) and South Dakota (7.9%).  Four other states round out the bottom 10: Tennessee (8.3%), Texas (8.4%), Louisiana (8.4%) and Arizona (8.5%).

    That amounts to a difference of 2.1% for state and local taxes, which is really not that much money. Given that a family in California has a much wider array of services than a family in Texas, it’s reasonable to conclude that the family in California has had no qualms voting for what they receive; the family in Texas can only wish for such things while continuing to pay more in taxes than families in Florida or New Hampshire.

    Simply saying “California Sucks!” over and over again allowed for one of the biggest flim-flams in history, which was the manipulation of energy supplies and costs in order to throw former governor Gray Davis to the wolves. Now, the man had his problems, but was he treated fairly? Or was he a victim of this mindset that says that if you want to live in California and have a relatively high number of services available to you, then you’re choosing the wrong thing? I would put it to you this way—you get the government you vote for, and, in America, you’re entitled to vote your interests. It’s that simple.

    At the Federal level, well, what’s the difference there? It’s based on income, and we all pay the same rates. If you choose high-service California over low-service Texas, you seem to be getting a bargain. Thank God you didn’t choose New Jersey, in other words.

    There’s a four percent difference in the literacy level of California and Texas, and California wins that footrace. This is double the rate of taxation, and it is an indicator of how much more valuable education is in California than Texas, simply because Texas spends more on it than California. Hence, California certainly does not suck when it comes to helping people reach literacy. With the same number of Hispanics, roughly, one state more than outperforms the other in terms of literacy. I won’t get into quality of life. Whether you prefer Orange County to Bexar County is something you’ll have to argue amongst yourselves.

    Friday
    26Feb2010

    Gaddafi's Swiss Derangement Continues

    Bern, Switzerland

    This won’t end:

    Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi has called for a jihad, or holy war, against Switzerland, as an ongoing diplomatic row between the two nations heats up.

    He criticised a recent Swiss vote against the building of minarets and said Muslims must boycott the country.

    There have been tensions between the nations since 2008, when one of Mr Gaddafi’s sons was arrested in Geneva, accused of assaulting two servants.

    A Swiss foreign ministry spokesman declined to comment on the jihad call.

    The Libyan leader made his comments while speaking at a meeting to mark the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.

    “Let us wage jihad against Switzerland, Zionism and foreign aggression,” he said.

    While that all might sound like harmless talk, it’s hardly what we need to be hearing from Libya. In exchange for some measure of normalcy and improved economic ties to the West, Libya had to agree to certain things. This derangement against Switzerland was not one of those things. 

    Tuesday
    23Feb2010

    Killing Admiral Yamamoto Was Not an Assassination

    Admiral Yamamoto on the Cover of Time, December 22, 1941

    George Friedman is an excellent thinker, but I have to take exception to his piece at Stratfor and refute some of what he is saying. I don’t know why, but this bothers me to no end:

    We should begin by defining what we mean by assassination. It is the killing of a particular individual for political purposes. It differs from the killing of a spouse’s lover because it is political. It differs from the killing of a soldier on the battlefield in that the soldier is anonymous and is not killed because of who he is but because of the army he is serving in.

    The question of assassination, in the current jargon “targeted killing,” raises the issue of its purpose. Apart from malice and revenge, as in Abraham Lincoln’s assassination, the purpose of assassination is to achieve a particular political end by weakening an enemy in some way. Thus, the killing of Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto by the Americans in World War II was a targeted killing, an assassination. His movements were known, and the Americans had the opportunity to kill him. Killing an incompetent commander would be counterproductive, but Yamamoto was a superb strategist, without peer in the Japanese navy. Killing him would weaken Japan’s war effort, or at least have a reasonable chance of doing so. With all the others dying around him in the midst of war, the moral choice did not seem complex then, nor does it seem complex now.

    Such occasions rarely occur on the battlefield. There are few commanders who could not readily be replaced, and perhaps even replaced by someone more able. In any event, it is difficult to locate enemy commanders, meaning the opportunity to kill them rarely arises. And as commanders ask their troops to risk their lives, they have no moral claim to immunity from danger.

    Since when is shooting down an enemy transport plane in a theater of war dominated by the strategy of interdicting air and sea transport an “assassination?” In the South Pacific, virtually every battle combined the need to stop the enemy on air, land, and at sea by any means possible. Every aircraft, every ship, and every soldier was a target and was “fair game.” For the American military, to simply allow an enemy transport plane to fly from one place to another without trying to shoot it down would be a tragic neglect of the need to stop the enemy at all costs.

    The killing of a man in the uniform of his country on the battlefield is legitimate. To call it “political” is to ignore the fact of the uniform and the reality of the conflict at hand.

    The intercepted intelligence that gave the Americans the chance to intercept the plane carrying Yamamoto was an advantage we held and used whenever possible; someone had to calculate the risks involved. If we had missed killing Yamamoto, that might have tipped off the Japanese military that we were reading their communications traffic. If we had passed up the chance to take out the plane, we would have been guilty of negligence. Suppose that transport had vital intelligence on it, or some other vital piece of weaponry. Suppose it had chemical weapons on it, designed to allow the last few defenders on an island the ability to kill hundreds of attacking Americans. Absolutely, we should have shot down that plane, and any other plane we could reach.

    Generals died regularly during the war; they died in plane crashes and they were killed on the battlefield. They were, and have always been, the target of sharpshooters and artillery and whatever other weapon can be brought to bear. To kill Yamamoto meant utilizing a complicated strategy of deciding whether or not we could project enough airpower into the flight path of his transport plane. Risks were taken, and men were put in danger to accomplish this mission. It wasn’t an assassination. It was war. Period. End of story.

    Monday
    15Feb2010

    Being Weird is No Defense

    The case of Amy Bishop lends itself to some commentary. I have seen these academic types before—brilliant, yet weird. Well, at the end of the day, we’re all weird. We’re all a bit difficult at times. Favoritism and whatever else you want to put in there probably applies. She was promoted and retained and hired based on her gender. There, I said it. And she was too weird to deal with:

    In today’s Decatur Daily, staff writer Eric Fleischauer has an extended interviewwith UAH psychology professor Eric Seemann. You really should read the whole thing because it provides an inside view of Bishop’s personality and relationships. But here is a critical passage:

    Despite her excellent research ability, Seemann was not surprised she struggled to obtain tenure.

    “Amy was kind of hard to get along with,” he said. “I’ve talked to people who said, ‘Wow, she can be really arrogant,’ or be really headstrong. I knew that to be true. But at the same time she was brilliant. She was really one of UAH’s rising research stars. People I know in biological sciences would say, ‘She’s a great researcher, but she’s lousy to work with.’ “

    She was brilliant and she knew it.

    “At one meeting I was with Amy, she was complaining to a group of us. She said she was denied tenure not because she was a lousy researcher — she’s not, quite the opposite — and not because she didn’t have good classes, she believed she did — I think some might say otherwise — but because she was accused of being arrogant, aloof and superior. And she said, ‘I am.’

    That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t really speak to the issue of preferences. Should we have them? Of course we should. But the filter for “weird” and “difficult” appears to be broken.

    I’m weird, and I’m certainly difficult, and, as anyone will tell you, I do love my guns more than I love my children. But, I’m no Amy Bishop, that’s for certain. A Prince Valiant haircut doesn’t work for me.

    Friday
    05Feb2010

    They Found the Whiskey in Antarctica

    I think it’s spelled “Mackinlay’s”

    Back in November, I told you about the efforts to locate some old whiskey that was abandoned in Antarctica, and now, I can report some good news on those efforts:

    Five crates of Scotch whisky and two of brandy have been recovered by a team restoring an Antarctic hut used more than 100 years ago by famed polar explorer Ernest Shackleton.

    Ice cracked some of the bottles that had been left there in 1909, but the restorers said Friday they are confident the five crates contain intact bottles “given liquid can be heard when the crates are moved.”

    New Zealand Antarctic Heritage Trust team leader Al Fastier said the team thought there were two crates and were amazed to find five.

    Current distillery owner, drinks group Whyte & Mackay, launched the bid to recover the Scotch whisky for samples to test and decide whether to relaunch the defunct spirit made by distiller McKinlay and Co.

    Fastier said restoration workers found the crates under the hut’s floorboards in 2006, but they were too deeply embedded in ice to be dislodged.

    The New Zealanders agreed to drill the ice to try to retrieve some bottles, although the rest must stay under conservation guidelines agreed to by 12 Antarctic Treaty nations.

    “The unexpected find of the brandy crates, one labeled Chas. Mackinlay & Co and the other labeled The Hunter Valley Distillery Limited Allandale (Australia) are a real bonus,” said Fastier.

    Screw the Super Bowl—I have something to celebrate now.

    Science kicks ass.

    Saturday
    30Jan2010

    Don't Steal my iPad, Dude

    There seems to be this idea that having too many different devices is a bad thing: Really, it comes down to what you want to do with the devices you own.

    Kira Marchenese works in online communications, and so she arrived on a business trip to New York earlier this week equipped with all the gadgets you might expect: personal smart phone, work smart phone, laptop, iPod touch. Problem is, her hotel room didn’t have enough outlets to keep the darned devices charged.

    “I unplugged the lamp and still couldn’t do it,” she noted ruefully. “At least half the things I’m carrying right now are just dead hunks of metal.”

    And so, though communications is her world, Marchenese has no plans to rush out and buy the iPad, Apple’s new tablet device unveiled with much fanfare on Wednesday. She just doesn’t see the need for yet another gadget.

    Nor does Ray Bowman, a self-described “techno-junkie” who lives on a farm in Kentucky, raising sheep some 60 miles from the two nearest Apple stores. Bowman spent Wednesday eagerly following the news of Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ presentation, via Twitter, Facebook and wherever else he could find it.

    “I can’t wait to see what this puppy is capable of,” he enthused beforehand. And yet by Thursday, he’d decided not to jump in, even though he still plans to swing by the Louisville store when the iPad is in, just to examine it in his own hands.

    “I’ve seen the hype and the afterhype,” said Bowman, 58, executive director of an agriculture-oriented nonprofit organization. “I’ll stick with my netbook. Right now, I can’t see making the switch.”

    If you need E-mail, and I certainly don’t, get mobile data in a hand-held device, like a BlackBerry. If you need mobile video, that iPhone might be the way to go. The costs have to come down, and that will allow more people to buy into the wired world. Right now, I think the costs are too prohibitive. I also think that the theft of wireless devices is out of hand.

    A wireless device that has been stolen should be locked or rendered inoperative with a simple call to the service provider. If this was universal, more people might be willing to take the plunge.

    Right now, forget about getting help if your pricey iPad is stolen:

    iPad touch mock-upThe iPad includes a customized version of the iWork suite, which includes word processing, spreadsheet and presentation applications. It also includes the Safari browser, which can be an effective client for Web-based applications.

    However, the device has limited manageability and security features, which could be a concern for enterprises looking to manage the device remotely, analysts said.

    For example, if the device gets stolen, there is no way for IT administrators to deploy a push policy that locks it, said Chris Hazelton, research director for mobile and wireless technologies at The 451 Group.

    That feature is available on the iPhone, and it could be implemented in the iPad over time if enterprise use of the product grows. It also lacks support for features like VPN (virtual private networks) or push e-mail. Because the iPad doesn’t support Microsoft Exchange, it may be difficult for IT administrators to manage e-mail on the devices, Hazelton said.

    Something needs to be changed to make these problems go away. I’ll just wait until the fixes are done.

    Cross posted over at gadjimatronics…