An American Lion

This is where Norman Rogers practices the manly art of curation.

Custom Search

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

The Frisky Mole Boy of Groton

Norman Rogers recounts the summer he spent hiding from the stern love of his father and living as the world-famous “frisky mole boy” in the Groton, Connecticut sewer system. The Frisky Mole Boy of Groton seduced the women of the town and solved crimes, all while subsisting on a steady diet of depravity and confusion.

Rampage of the Innocents is my unfinished but brilliant Historical Romance Novel (now, with more sex and violence for my teenaged readers)

  Archives

Categories

drupal statistics module

PageRank Checker

TopOfBlogs

Blog directory

Independent Political Blogs - BlogCatalog Blog Directory

An American Lion - Blogged

BlogRankers.com

Blogs lists and reviews

 

blogarama - the blog directory

Join My Community at MyBloglog!

add page

http://www.wikio.com

Seed Newsvine

http://www.wikio.com/

Powered by Squarespace
This form does not yet contain any fields.
    An American Lion

    Entries in Analysis (410)

    Friday
    Sep102010

    Now This is a Car For Johnny Law

    Polizei

    If you look carefully at the license plate on the police car pictured above, it appears to be registered to Boblingen, which is near where we live now in Germany. Boblingen is a wonderful little city, but the traffic and speed cameras there are no fun. They are hidden all over the city, and they do Johnny Law’s job for him—they get everyone to slow down and drive reasonably.

    Not every police officer can drive a Porsche, however:

    There’s a three-way shoot-out blazing on the mean streets of Detroit. This one pits Ford against General Motors, with Chrysler hoping to score with a lucky shot of its own.

    The three makers are all vying for the police interceptor market Ford will vacate when it pulls the plug on its time-worn Crown Victoria, long the vehicle of choice for the nation’s law enforcement community, in September 2011.

    While police departments have used a variety of vehicles in recent years, especially for unmarked and undercover cruisers, the Crown Victoria Police Interceptor has garnered the lion’s share of law enforcement sales, with about 60 percent of the 75,000 vehicles sold annually. That demand was one of the main reasons Ford has kept the Crown Vic in production so long.

    Most of the cities and towns patrolled by Johnny Law are flat broke. There’s no money left. So, why not just abandon the idea of having Johnny Law use a police car? Why not have him use a minivan? A minivan is the ultimate Johnny Law vehicle. Buy them used and change the oil or do whatever is necessary to ensure that the thing doesn’t break down after a few thousand miles.

    The roomier ones are perfect for law enforcement work. The minivan could be the unsung hero of fiscally conscious communities all over the nation. The minivan can patrol with excellent views of the surrounding area. It can even be fitted with a Johnny Law perched on top, spinning a spotlight around. The minivan can be retro-fitted for multi-use. It can use one to three Johnny Laws if necessary. It can fit a couple of them up front and it can haul between five and seven rowdy small-town teenagers. Put bigger motors in them and you’ll see the difference. Johnny Law doesn’t do much chasing these days anyway.

    I know, I know—they’re dowdy. Well, so what? Dowdy is reliable, and reliable is the new austerity trophy. Get yours today.

    Sunday
    Sep052010

    Would This Be a Good Time to Bring Up Iraq?

    Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qadir al-Ubaidi, center, inspects the site of a suicide attack accompanied by soldiers at a military headquarters in Baghdad, on Sunday. The fighting killed 12 people and wounded dozens.

    Yes, there’s still something of a war in Iraq:

    Days after the U.S. officially ended combat operations and touted Iraq’s ability to defend itself, American troops found themselves battling heavily armed militants assaulting an Iraqi military headquarters in the center of Baghdad on Sunday. The fighting killed 12 people and wounded dozens.

    It was the first exchange of fire involving U.S. troops in Baghdad since the Aug. 31 deadline for formally ending the combat mission, and it showed that American troops remaining in the country are still being drawn into the fighting.

    The attack also made plain the kind of lapses in security that have left Iraqis wary of the U.S. drawdown and distrustful of the ability of Iraqi forces now taking up ultimate responsibility for protecting the country.

    Sunday’s hour-long assault was the second in as many weeks on the facility, the headquarters for the Iraqi Army’s 11th Division, pointing to the failure of Iraqi forces to plug even the most obvious holes in their security.

    Duck, Cletus. Those sons of bitches are still shooting at you. Apparently, no one told the Iraqi Army that it was their turn to get their hands dirty fighting to preserve and protect their own country. How much do you want to bet that the ones that ran away will still get paid next month to do nothing?

    We may not have a very large footprint in Iraq (although, 50,000 troops is a hell of a lot of troops to me) and we may have ended combat operations, but let’s not forget this one very salient fact—there is no middle class in Iraq anymore. Anyone with the means to do so has fled. What’s left are a lot of very scared people at the mercy of whatever happens in their general vicinity. It is the collision of a corrupt government, an ally in retreat, and an entrenched opposition that thrives on murder and mayhem. It is not a recipe for sunshine and puppy dogs and happy times.

    Monday
    Aug302010

    Few People Understand the German Economy Right Now

    I think Mr. Krugman is fairly well-versed, but this fellow that he’s quoting today may not be so savvy:

    Wolfgang Munchau has some not-so-nice things to say about the German economic situation. He notes that so far, at least, Germany’s growth simply reflects recovery from an unusually deep slump: “So far, this looks like classic dead-cat bounce.” He also stresses the role of German undervaluation; this is a big problem, and I agree that it’s at the heart of the eurozone’s troubles.

    Well, Munchau starts off by basing his observations on what he observes in a German grocery store.

     

    Really? Which one? Aldi? E Market? Or any of a number of discount markets that I can go into any time I want. The difference between a Penny Markt and an E Market are evident when you walk through the front door.

     

    Grocery stores reflect the prices that the community in which you live can, generally, pay for things. If you look at high end stores and discount stores, and everyone in between, prices will rise and fall based on the economics of the people who live there. If the grocery store prices are too high, they’ll be out of business, and fast. If the prices ride along smartly, then the store can thrive.

     

    Standards of living vary across Germany. The presence in my part of Germany of dozens of large companies—to say nothing of the massive Mercedes assembly plant in Sindelfingen—all but guarantees that, when I go into E Market, I’ll be paying a few more euros than someone in the middle of Italy. What is “undervaluation” anyway? Is it any accident that the Germans have a lingering resentment for their trading of the mark for the euro? If you had a traditionally strong currency, and if you traded it for one based in some part on the shenanigans of the Italians and the Greeks, you’d be sensitive to the claims being made. too. 

     

    People cannot understand this, and I do not know why—the Germans will not do anything to endanger their way of life or the standard of living they now enjoy. They are fanatical about cutting and stacking wood, about grooming and caring for fruit trees that grow in abundance here, and they recycle and conserve as if their lives depend on it. They will not just sit here and consume, mindlessly, while other members of the EU go down the toilet. 
    Wednesday
    Aug112010

    It's a Little Premature to Call This President Obsolete

    This sort of column must be fashionable with the smart crowd right now:

    Not long ago Barack Obama, for those who were spellbound by him, had the stylishness of JFK and the historic mission of FDR riding to the nation's rescue. Now it is to Lyndon B. Johnson's unhappy presidency that Democratic strategist Robert Shrum compares the stewardship of Mr. Obama. Johnson, wrote Mr. Shrum in the Week magazine last month, never "sustained an emotional link with the American people" and chose to escalate a war that "forced his abdication as president."

    A broken link with the public, and a war in Afghanistan he neither embraces and sells to his party nor abandons—this is a time of puzzlement for President Obama. His fall from political grace has been as swift as his rise a handful of years ago. He had been hot political property in 2006 and, of course, in 2008. But now he will campaign for his party's 2010 candidates from afar, holding fund raisers but not hitting the campaign trail in most of the contested races. Those mass rallies of Obama frenzy are surely of the past.

    The vaunted Obama economic stimulus, at $862 billion, has failed. The "progressives" want to double down, and were they to have their way, would have pushed for a bigger stimulus still. But the American people are in open rebellion against an economic strategy of public debt, higher taxes and unending deficits. We're not all Keynesians, it turns out. The panic that propelled Mr. Obama to the presidency has waned. There is deep concern, to be sure. But the Obama strategy has lost the consent of the governed.

    What people are missing is the snap-back that occurs when a President loses some steam and popularity and then shakes things up. When President Obama finally gets rid of the right people (Axelrod, Emanuel, and Ken Salazar, to name a few) and when he finally names his own Secretary of Defense, the momentum will shift. There are two things that I believe will happen--President Obama will make changes, and soon, and the Republican Party will overreach and miss a fundamental chance to become a successful national party.

    I've seen this movie play out before. Once a President is counted down, there is a reassessment of goals and strategy and a lot of very smart people become intensely focused on changing what isn't working. This President will change what is not working because that's what Presidents do. This is why George W. Bush got rid of Karl Rove and why Bill Clinton got friendly with Dick Morris. There are one-term exceptions, such as Ford and Carter and Bush the elder, but their changes simply didn't take hold in time to save them. The business of political consulting is so much more in tune now with polling and the preferences of the electorate. I would really be shocked to see President Obama limp into 2012 with this slate of losers.

    The greatest mistake that can be made right now is to count out a career politician who overcame massive obstacles in order to win the Presidency. I believe history will show that the only reason why he is President is because the public so overwhelmingly rejected Republicanism when the economy went south and was then handed the terrible option of having to further suck it up and vote for John McCain. Anyone could have been elected President in 2008, provided they were telegenic, a member of the Democrat Party, and not John McCain. I also think history will show that the American people are more willing to stick with this man simply because he is a centrist.

    President Obama's skillful use of the center in American politics is easy to underestimate. With his liberal base so angry with him, how then does a Republican make the claim that this is an administration out of touch with American values and that it is a bastion of out-of-control liberalism? Were that the case, President Obama's base would be with him; in point of fact, his base is alienated.

    And, because his base is alienated right now, he exists in a dangerous place. He can, literally, go anywhere on an issue and stake out a position that is best for his political purposes. He is not hemmed in anywhere. He is free is a bird and that makes him a cunning realist in a field full of people who are already counting their chickens before they have hatched.

    Talk to me when this man is soundly beaten first. There is no use calling him obsolete when the voters have not expressed their judgement.

    Tuesday
    Aug102010

    The Divide Between the President and His Base Widens

    If you didn't see this coming, shame on you:

    The White House is simmering with anger at criticism from liberals who say President Obama is more concerned with deal-making than ideological purity.

    During an interview with The Hill in his West Wing office, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs blasted liberal naysayers, whom he said would never regard anything the president did as good enough.

    "I hear these people saying he’s like George Bush. Those people ought to be drug tested," Gibbs said. "I mean, it's crazy."

    The press secretary dismissed the “professional left” in terms very similar to those used by their opponents on the ideological right, saying, "They will be satisfied when we have Canadian healthcare and we’ve eliminated the Pentagon. That’s not reality."

    Of those who complain that Obama caved to centrists on issues such as healthcare reform, Gibbs said: “They wouldn’t be satisfied if Dennis Kucinich was president."

    What gets people excited about supporting the Obama administration is when a high ranking official from this administration delivers a windmill-style fankick to the seat of the pants of the people who oppose their agenda. Instead, the high road gets taken. Rarely does the intellectual dishonesty of this president’s opponents come into the sort of mocking that would drive it back underground.

    So far, the high road isn’t working. Why isn’t someone trumpeting the fact that the American auto industry is coming back? Why isn’t someone explaining how a draw down in Iraq is going to help the military? Why isn’t someone going after the obstructionism of the Republican caucus in the Senate?

    Money.

    When you are beholden to money, you worship it like a slave. This administration rarely does anything of substance that will cost them the support of the people who really write the checks. Ironically, this was an administration swept into power by the small donors who gave $25 or so. They must be counting on the loss of that money. They are playing for a 50-49 win in November 2012. They are not doing anything to make a liberal swoon with approval or love.

    Tuesday
    Aug102010

    Journalism Majors Are Toast

    Journalism is a skill akin to buggy whip manufacturing--it's toast:

    In my previous post, I argued that the journalism job market had plunged, and then rebounded sharply over the past year.  Here’s the relevant chart again:

    The newly-released 2009 Annual Survey of Journalism & Mass Communication Graduates  from the University of Georgia completely supports this narrative. The survey discovered that the  labor market for June 2009 graduates was terrible–exactly what my chart shows.

    But then, as we went into 2010, things got better,  according to the survey–a lot better. The survey reports that:

    Of those graduates returning the survey in November, only 46.5% reported having a full-time job. In May, the rate was 62.8%.

    In fact, the survey’s chart 6 looks almost exactly like my chart above.

    I think it’s pretty clear that the journalism job market, at least up this point, is bouncing back faster than a lot of other occupations. My best guess is that journalism, broadly defined,  is quickly going to become one of the hot careers.

    The real question is, should a state school or your run-of-the-mill university out there even offer a major in Journalism?

    Is it irresponsible for a state school to have a journalism program and continually dump graduates into a job market that is, for all intents and purposes, virtually dead on arrival? 

    There are some (at that site) who believe that you can be a "liberal" arts major and survive with a journalism degree. I have run a business, and I wouldn’t take any of them. In fact, in the practical world, forget about it. Science, engineering, accounting, business or economics? Math, law, medical, computer or research? I can name ten skills that would mean a great deal more to me as a prospective employer than fine arts, creative writing, history or journalism. 

    In a global environment, I would think that you would need the research and writing skills as an aside or as a foundational set of skills AND you would HAVE to have something scientific or otherwise as a matter of practicality. If anyone thinks that a creative writing major is going to run a company that makes things or fixes things, forget about it. That’s a recipe for bankruptcy. 

    Journalism majors of the world–abandon your ridiculous course of study and get some math or engineering skills. That is all.

    Monday
    Aug092010

    Infrastructure is Everything When You Absolutely Have to Have It

    One of the things that always smacks me in the face when I point to the need for some measure of austerity in this country is the reality that we cannot scrimp on spending on infrastructure.

    This backs up the sharp attacks on my beliefs on that subject:

    Experts on the nation's electricity system point to a frighteningly steep increase in non-disaster-related outages affecting at least 50,000 consumers.

    During the past two decades, such blackouts have increased 124 percent -- up from 41 blackouts between 1991 and 1995, to 92 between 2001 and 2005, according to research at the University of Minnesota.

    In the most recently analyzed data available, utilities reported 36 such outages in 2006 alone.

    "It's hard to imagine how anyone could believe that -- in the United States -- we should learn to cope with blackouts," said University of Minnesota Professor Massoud Amin, a leading expert on the U.S. electricity grid.

    Amin supports construction of a nationwide "smart grid" that would avert blackouts and save billions of dollars in wasted electricity.

    In a nutshell, a smart grid is an automated electricity system that improves the reliability, security and efficiency of electric power. It more easily connects with new energy sources, such as wind and solar, and is designed to charge electric vehicles and control home appliances via a so-called "smart" devices.

    There, my bullshit has been refuted. But, I will point out, any research into the "rolling blackout" phenomenon has to take into account the manipulations of energy traders.

    Sunday
    Aug082010

    Megan McArdle is Blown Away by the Facts Again

    I'm not going to take sides in the dispute between Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. Somewhere out there is a third answer to the solution as to what to do to bring our fiscal house in order, and I haven't found that third way as of yet.

    If I were to dedicate myself to finding the answer, here's what I would start with--no tax cuts and massive cuts in entitlement spending. I would cut defense spending by twenty percent and end the wars we are in. I would reduce the American footprint overseas. I would means test all spending programs, especially Social Security. Do you collect a government pension? I would cut your Social Security. Do you not need your Social Security? I would cut it. And everyone would pay Social Security on every penny of their income. I would remove the cap and never look back.

    I would be the most hated son of a bitch in America (I'm used to it, sir). But I wouldn't raise income taxes and I wouldn't spend a penny more than the government needs to spend. I would eliminate HUD, Education, and most of the Department of Agriculture. I would freeze spending at last year's level and lock this country into three years of consecutive budgets that draw down our deficits and leave us with a measure of austerity that we can tolerate. You cannot stop spending and you cannot keep spending well in excess of what we take in. You can find yourself in worse shape by doing nothing.

    What Ryan and Krugman advocate are extremes on an issue which no one will touch, because the answer is a series of politically tough choices that could kill someone's reelection. No one will admit this; no one will touch on the bitter pill that has to be swallowed, and soon. What you get is this nonsense from Megan McArdle:

    Though I've only met him once, everything I've heard about Ryan indicates that he genuinely loves this stuff--if he could have more time with the CBO and JCT staff, he'd be in heaven.  I think it's absolutely fair to point out that his Roadmap would be a heroic political sell, and would probably be watered down in ways that would seriously weaken it.  I also think it is absolutely fair to point out that the tax rates needed to raise the necessary revenue would probably--not definitely; the TPC is not omniscient--be considerably less popular than what is outlined in the Roadmap.

    But it is not correct to accuse Ryan of deliberate dishonesty; he asked the CBO to score it, and they turned him down.  Nor is it correct to imply that this is somehow out of the ordinary.  If you supported the health care plan, you supported the exact same process that Ryan is now proposing to use to tweak his proposal.  Were they all brazen liars because the tweakery turned out to be a lot harder than they'd hoped?

    Update:  I emailed Ryan's people around noon to ask whether my recollection was correct that he was unable to get staff time from the JCT.  Within 30 minutes on a Saturday morning, I had emails from two staffers, one of whom was on vacation.  They affirmed that he asked the JCT for an analysis, and was turned down.  Which tells us a few things:  first, that Paul Ryan's people are exceptionally hard-working and responsive.  Second, that Paul Ryan did his best to get the revenue side as well as the spending side scored. And third, that Paul Krugman could easily have gotten answers to his questions if he had wanted them.

    I don't care how "hard working" his people are--his proposal as presented is thus flawed. McArdle's fan-girl crush on Ryan glosses over the fact that Krugman is essentially correct--Ryan's proposal doesn't flesh out because he couldn't get the numbers and never disclosed up front that he couldn't get the numbers.

    The dishonesty of McArdle's position is laid bare by yet another commenter on her blog and is not answered:

    Dear Miss McArdle,
    According to an article written by Douglas Holtz-Eakin (that would be the former Director of the CBO) titled 'Dynamic scoring' on page 86 in 'Encyclopedia of taxation and tax policy' your claim that 'the JCT, not the CBO, typically handles the official scoring of tax legislation' only applies to tax bills 'reported out of committee' (i.e. it does not apply to Rep. Ryans proposal). Holtz-Eakin continues: 'Both CBO and JCT also provide numerous informal estimates of proposals earlier in the legislative process' (which applies to Rep. Ryans proposal). The reason that Krugman is not aware that the JCT, not the CBO, typically handles the scoring of tax proposals like the proposal by Rep. Ryan is probably that that is actually not the way it typically works.
    By the way, it took 3 minutes on Google to find this information.

    McArdle is punked again. And no one even bothered to call her names this time. There's nothing intellectually clever or sound when Paul Krugman can pick apart your economic proposal in minutes because it tries to use incomplete numbers. With such nonsense, the conservative movement is not advanced forward. This anti-intellectual bullshit hurts conservative ideology.

    You do not put up fudged numbers and hope no one notices. You propose completely sound ideas and ignore criticisms that aren't valid; you put your case to the American people and let them decide. In the end, conservative ideas will always triumph when soundly reasoned and applied. If you can't provide the heft, don't surround yourself with dazzled sycophants and pass that off as a movement. I'm a big believer in the ideas that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are putting forward because he has the distinction of creating enemies on both sides.

    Let's put this into perspective. One of the great criticisms of President Barack Obama was that he had never held executive office prior to becoming President. I think that that criticism has borne fruit in that he certainly doesn't appear to be up to the job in a number of respects. Well, then why am I to believe that Congressman Ryan has the answers? The man was a speechwriter for Jack Kemp. He's never held executive office. Give me a Chris Christie who can and will wield executive power and the Veto pen. Enough said.

    A proposal to balance our budget carries a little more credibility with me when it comes from someone who has actually had to balance a budget and work with a recalcitrant legislature. No sane proposal should ever come without "enemies" on both sides. With sanity comes the hurt, and, brother, we are in for a world of hurt in order to fix what ails us. It's just the repackaging and selling of old snake oil when we pretend there is no hurt due to an out of this world and over the top spending nation of credit card users who have long since maxed out what they can consume and spend. The first politician who says we can fix things without suffering is the last person you'd want to vote for.

    Until and unless people have that moment of clarity--we are spending ourselves into oblivion because the political class has promised us everything, delivered nothing, and is accountable only to themselves--and realize that we must cut entitlements, defense spending, and hold taxes at the level they're at, forget it. We will not restore the American dream.

    Friday
    Aug062010

    Where Are the Jobs?

    There are no damned jobs.

    Nobody has a job.

    The economy is in the toilet, you see, so, no. I'm not going to hire you. I'm thinking of letting a few people go, actually. I'm a businessman and there are no jobs and I'm not hiring anyone because that's what everyone else is doing. I'm paralyzed by uncertainty. When you know what's going on, let me know.

    Sound reasonable? Or does it sound like a self-fulfilling prophecy of eternal doom?

    The nation isn't creating nearly enough jobs to reduce persistently high unemployment.

    For the third straight month, the private sector hired cautiously in July. And those meager gains in the job market were nearly wiped out by tens of thousands of cuts at all levels of government.

    Making matters worse: Many of the new jobs that are being created do not pay well enough to significantly jump-start spending by shoppers and stimulate the broader economy.

    The unemployment rate was stuck at 9.5 percent for the second straight month, the Labor Department said Friday. Analysts said it would probably climb back into double digits because the private sector is not creating jobs fast enough.

    Private employers reported a net gain of 71,000 jobs for July — far below the 200,000 it takes for the unemployment rate just to hold steady and keep pace with the growing work force.

    How would I fix this? Well, I'm merely an expert, having employed hundreds of people for decades, but I'll venture a guess anyway:

    Nobody is hiring because they don't need to hire right now.

    That's right. It all comes down to what people need. And if employers have figured out how to get by with fewer workers, then there's almost nothing the government can do about it. And this runs counter to several themes that we have gotten used to in this country. The first theme is the one where we're all special and deserve to have full employment of all able bodied adults. Uh, no. No we don't deserve anything anymore. The second theme is the one where we can't accept the idea that government doesn't have the ready-made solution for us. No, the government really isn't able to solve this problem.

    But, you're in luck because I can solve this problem.

    What I should first do is acknowledge that the government can help save your job but it can't do much to create a sustained, viable job. The Obama Administration's biggest accomplishment so far is the saving of the American auto industry. This saves several million jobs, from the people who design cars Americans don't really like (but Europeans and South Americans seem to like) to the people who stock and deliver spare parts for those cars to the people who are at the retail lots that are still open. The government bail out of the auto industry was money well spent, and no good conservative should decry the auto industry; it's one of the few things we still make in this country.

    Government can't create jobs outside of its own sphere. It can't start a small business in Podunk, Utah and make that company sell widgets to Utah residents who want widgets that are made by that particular business. Government can create several hundred positions in Utah by opening up a branch office of the Utah widget making watchdog agency, and they can hire a bunch of old guys to stand around outside of widget making companies, hollering about loose handrails and the like. Government can make those "shovel ready" jobs that are great for Vice Presidential anecdotes but those aren't the kinds of jobs we need.

    We need an abundance of jobs that are useful and have purpose. We need jobs for people who can make, design, improve, or repair things that we need every day. This is becoming a society and a nation that is more about utility, less about fancy bullshit. Gone are the days of the company that could make a $45,000 motorcycle that looks like something out of a Mexican whorehouse. Yes, there will always be that one fellow with money to burn who can afford something bent and grotesque. But, as a rule, think small cars, practicality, and making things last.

    What government can't do is create jobs at companies that are worried about the taxes they will have to pay in a couple of years or the cost of the health care they will have to provide for their employees. We have spent too much time dithering over the trivial. And health care is trivial--it's a no brainer. Fine, come up with a cheap way to keep employee x and his wife and his 2.4 children in some sort of barely affordable health care coverage that won't put them into bankruptcy. Now, onward and upward. The solution? Eliminate uncertainty. Establish clearly defined parameters. Your taxes, for the next five years, are going to be this and your health care costs for employees will be that and now you can sit and do your books. When you figure out what you need, we'll give you a tax break of $1000 per new hire or something to that effect.

    If we focus on rewarding companies that hire people, and build incentives for them to do so, we will see modest increases in the employment numbers. Too often, government isn't working hand in hand with businesses to make that happen. There is still a slap-down high and mighty approach that has a government agency ripping a company to shreds over something that can be sorted out through mediation and negotiation. All too often, a labor union or an advocacy group gets in the middle of the process and brings things to an extreme conclusion. Let's celebrate the efforts of unions to keep people working through compromise and good faith negotiations, however.

    I want a small business that has 20 employees to feel like it can expand or double in size based on knowing that taking that risk could pay off. It's always a risk to expand and go a little into the hole and I used to love doubling down and rolling the dice. I once hired forty people just so I could tell Father that I had built a West African Riot Control Vehicle division. We had to let them all go--West African nations use a lot of tear gas and a lot of burning tires to control restless populations. Riot control vehicles don't sell well, but hey--at least I tried to get Liberia to buy a couple of dozen assembled and marketed by those 40 hapless suckers I mean, employees, that I had hired.

    Now is no time to take risks. No one knows what they will pay in taxes or health care and no one knows whether or not we will talk ourselves into another double dip recession. Until uncertainty is lowered to a certain threshold, the jobs just aren't going to come back.

    Tuesday
    Aug032010

    Even a Totalitarian Knows You Shouldn't Fool With Mother Nature

    I'm trying to figure out where they're coming from with this, but I'm afraid I'm completely and utterly unable to make sense of this:

    It is tempting to suggest that a country’s ability to prepare is a matter of money. After all, the United States and Japan are extremely wealthy. However, although wealth certainly matters, politics are more important. Four decades ago, a 7.9-magnitude quake struck Peru, killing about 66,000 people. In 2001, an even stronger earthquake hit but killed less than 150 people. Admittedly, the population density in the area of the first earthquake was about twice that in the second. But that alone does not account for the huge disparity in casualties. Neither does income. Peru’s per capita income was virtually identical in real terms at both points. The big difference was political. In 2001, Peru was a democracy, whereas in 1970 it was not. The 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, one of the worst in U.S. history, killed more than three thousand people. The United States’ GDP per capita at the time was comparable to nondemocratic Mexico’s in 1985 -- the year a similarly sized earthquake struck Mexico City, killing three times as many. And whereas a 2001 earthquake in democratic India killed more than 20,000 people, a slightly smaller 2005 earthquake in nondemocratic (and then slightly wealthier) Pakistan killed more than 80,000.

    Now, how does per capita affect an earthquake in terms of who is killed and who is not killed? Do poor people die differently than the rich? 

    Here in Germany, I can spend all day walking by buildings that are three hundred years old. In those three hundred years of German history, there have been wars, floods, disasters, fires and rebuilding of those buildings. There are castles everywhere. Fortresses abound. But earthquakes are rare. So in those parts of the world where earthquakes are more plentiful, where are the examples of older buildings to show us how certain methods of construction are able to survive?

    If you think in terms of Mexico, San Francisco, or Peru, you're looking at a few hundred years of building and construction practices rather than the many standing structures that date to the Roman period here in Europe. What is the difference between a building collapsing in 1976 versus a building collapsing thirty years later? Is that because of democracy or is that something entirely different?

    Here, the authors try to make better sense of this:

    In a democracy, leaders must maintain the confidence of large portions of the population in order to stay in power. To do so, they need to protect the people from natural disasters by enforcing building codes and ensuring that bureaucracies are run by competent administrators. When politicians fail to deliver -- by, for example, letting too many die in disasters -- they lose their jobs. On average, 39 percent of democracies experience anti-government protests within any two-year period. The rate almost doubles after a major earthquake (defined as one that results in more than 200 casualties). And whereas 40 percent of democratic nations replace their leader in any two-year period, between 1976 and 2007, 91 percent of them did so following a major earthquake.

    Okay, building codes. I get that. One can certainly make the case that in a democracy, where there is more of an attempt at good governance (corruption is impossible to eliminate but it can be "rolled back" in some ways) that buildings and structures and infrastructure will be built to certain codes. What I don't get is this--Mexico has always had a corrupt undercurrent and we see evidence of that today with the drug war. Mexico has never seen a period of calm, capable governance free of corruption and yet they call it a nondemocratic country--that's news to me. Even though it has seen one party rule for as long as there has been an independent Mexico it's simply not listed anywhere as being anything other than a democracy.

    Here's more to think about:

    The story of Turkey is instructive. In 1999, the country experienced two large earthquakes in the course of three months, in August and November. The death toll from the first reached 17,000. Public anger over shoddily constructed housing almost cost the newly elected prime minister, Bülent Ecevit, his job. When the second earthquake struck, the government was much better prepared. In contrast to its sluggish and uncoordinated efforts following August’s quake, by November the government had created a crisis center to coordinate domestic and international aid and was able to rapidly deploy its armed forces to deliver assistance in affected areas. The death toll from the November earthquake was below one thousand, and the government was widely praised for its actions.

    Or was the impact--the epicenter--of the earthquake noticeably different than our current measurements would have us believe? The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was unique in our history because of how long it lasted; given all of the variables, how can you say that an earthquake that hits an area a hundred years ago is "similar" in any way to another earthquake that reoccurs in that area. Seismograph measurements are too simplistic to serve as a complete gauge as to the severity of the impact.

    Here's my example of that:

    The earthquake was caused by subduction and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves up to 30 meters(100 feet) high.[5] It was one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded historyIndonesia was the hardest hit, followed by Sri Lanka,India, and Thailand.

    With a magnitude of between 9.1 and 9.3, it is the second largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph. This earthquake had the longest duration of faulting ever observed, between 8.3 and 10 minutes. It caused the entire planet to vibrate as much as 1 cm (0.4 inches)[6] and triggered other earthquakes as far away as Alaska.

    Magnitude does not tell everything about an earthquake:

    Seismic waves are waves of energy that travel through the core of the earth or other elastic bodies, for example as a result of anearthquakeexplosion, or some other process that imparts low-frequency acoustic energy. Seismic waves are studied by seismologistsand geophysicists. Seismic wavefields are measured by a seismographgeophonehydrophone (in water), or accelerometer.

    The propagation velocity of the waves depends on density and elasticity of the medium. Velocity tends to increase with depth, and ranges from approximately 2 to 8 km/s in the Earth's crust up to 13 km/s in the deep mantle.

    Earthquakes create various types of waves with different velocities; when reaching seismic observatories, their different travel timeenables the scientists to locate the epicenter. In geophysics the refraction or reflection of seismic waves is used for research of the Earth's interior, and artificial vibrations to investigate subsurface structures.

    Given all of those possible variables, how can anyone "compare" earthquakes when it comes to who they kill and the damage that occurs? I can't bring myself to accept that it is possible to make those comparisons and then try to draw some sort of socio-political conclusion. I think there is merit to the political argument but this sounds like something best left to scientific analysis.