An American Lion

Tehran, Iran

Could the regime be close to collapse?

Iranian authorities sent police officers into the streets to deter protests on Friday as Mir Hussein Moussavi, the principal opposition leader, said in a statement that he did not fear giving his life as “a martyr.”

The continuing show of force in the capital and Mr. Moussavi’s declaration, in which he said that even killing him would not end the unrest, were part of a day of charges, countercharges and warnings from both sides, illustrating the deep divisions that have emerged since Iran’s political crisis began six months ago.

The government and its hard-line supporters continued to rely on force, and the threat of force, to quell protests and demand loyalty, while the opposition refused to back down. There was no indication that compromise was on the agenda.

During Friday Prayer services in the capital, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a fundamentalist cleric who leads the powerful Guardian Council, called protesters “flagrant examples of the corrupt on Earth” and effectively urged that they be executed as “in the early days of the revolution.”

Mr. Moussavi issued a statement on his Web site, kaleme.org, that took a broad swipe at the government for its use of force against civilian protesters. It also criticized the government’s handling of the economy and foreign policy and its failure to address institutional corruption.

Mr. Moussavi offered a prescription for the government to restore its lost legitimacy, calling for the release of political prisoners and the repair of electoral laws, as well as freedom of expression, assembly and the press.

Things seem to be getting worse in the repression business. This is no small uprising by a disaffected minority. The sentiments of the people seem to be with a new revolution, even though there are always going to be indifferent fence sitters.

This is what I did with my afternoon yesterday in response to this:

Iran analysts said they were bracing for the next potential showdown on Feb. 11, the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 revolution.

On Friday, New Year’s Day, residents of Tehran woke to a police presence in central Tehran, with officers stationed at several major intersections and squares. The authorities also deployed civilian members of the Basij militia equipped with batons, riot helmets and shields.

Forces were concentrated at Vali Asr Square, Seventh Tir Square and Revolution Square. Motorcycle-mounted police and plainclothes forces were seen patrolling the stretch of road between Revolution Square and Freedom Square.

Photographs and reports were circulating on the Internet about new heavily armored police vehicles that were delivered to Tehran over the last few days. The reports said they were Chinese-made vehicles with twin water cannons capable of delivering powerful jets of hot and cold water, as well as chemical irritants.

The show of force came in tandem with threats of prosecution for the many opposition supporters who had been arrested, and those leaders who had not.

No government can last if it is resorting to this kind of repression. I have never had much faith in Mr. Moussavi, due to his previous status as a very vocal anti-American, anti-democracy politician. It does seem that he has adopted the Western rhetoric of the political martyr, even going so far as to actually embrace being killed, as opposed to simply talking about it in order to raise money.