An American Lion

Being an expert on the Democrat Party, and the evil machinations of the money wing of that party, I think that I am the only one qualified to say that the party appears adrift to me, adrift on a shallow pond without being in any danger whatsoever.

When you have a viable adversary, you’re constantly on your guard. You don’t relax. Hubris is kept in check. You don’t do risky or creative things when you have someone nipping at your heels, ready to take everything away from you. The advantage that the Democrat Party has right now over the Republican Party is fairly substantial. The American people probably wouldn’t hand the keys to the Republicans right now for all of the tea in China. We’re a long way from that swing of the pendulum. And everyone knows it.

Everyone knows that the Democrat (you get your ic back when I say you get it back, not before) Party enjoys huge majorities and can substantially crush Republicans in numerous areas of the country. Taking the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia was a fairly big deal, however, and if something akin to that were to happen in 2010, I would say that there would be serious jeopardy for a second Obama term. Nothing is guaranteed. Few understand the risks of playing for time, playing defense.

That’s what the Democrats are doing—they’re playing not to lose, and that’s what’s hurting them:

Democrats may be headed for abnormally big losses in the 2010 congressional elections. The Cook Political Report, the most respected observer of congressional races, recently gave Republicans a 35%-40% chance of recapturing both Houses. The median forecast probably has Democrats retaining only a 10-15 seat majority in the House and a five seat margin in the Senate.

 

Either outcome would represent an electoral earthquake. It would force President Obama to the right because he could not govern without Republican support.

 

How serious is the weakened political standing of congressional Democrats? Recent polls are clear: Only 26% of Americans approve of this Congress, according to the latest Gallup poll. That’s the same low level of three years ago, just before control of both Houses shifted from Republicans to Democrats. Even President Obama’s approval rating has fallen below 50% in the two latest national polls. All of these readings carry anti-incumbent implications.

Congress has never been popular, so I don’t think that that means a great deal. The advantages of incumbency are still in place—don’t look for that to change. The real danger for the Democrat Party is that it will lose a series of key races by razor thin margins because the activist base of the party will either sit on their hands or weaken candidates by giving them tough primary challenges.

I see a scenario where the Democrats lose a number of key races simply because of low voter turnout and low voter enthusiasm. It was sky high in 2008. It will likely be an exercise in apathy in 2010. The only people motivated to show up could be the ones energized by anti-incumbent or anti-Obama elements in the electorate.

The key thing though is this—if the economy is marginally better, the Republicans won’t make much headway.